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Nasaf vs ATK Mohun Bagan — AFC Cup 2018

Nasaf
Nasafadvanced
FT
6 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
ATK Mohun Bagan
ATK Mohun Bagan
9/22/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Inter-zonal Semi-finalsStadion Nasaf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nasaf57%
×Draw19%
ATK Mohun Bagan24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
2.50
ATK Mohun Bagan
1.57

Nasaf creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Nasaf
2.71
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.14

allows per match

Nasaf
1.00
ATK Mohun Bagan
2.29

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
ATK Mohun Bagan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

ATK Mohun Bagan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
76%
Nasaf or ATK Mohun Bagan
81%
Draw or ATK Mohun Bagan
43%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
37%
ATK Mohun Bagan wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
92%
Nasaf 2+ goals
71%
Nasaf 3+ goals
45%
ATK Mohun Bagan 1+ goals
79%
ATK Mohun Bagan 2+ goals
46%
ATK Mohun Bagan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
71%
ATK Mohun Bagan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

ATK Mohun Bagan away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 2.71 + ATK Mohun Bagan defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.50

ATK Mohun Bagan attack 2.14 + Nasaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nasaf scores more
57%
level
19%
ATK Mohun Bagan scores more
24%

Nasaf at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasaf vs ATK Mohun Bagan

Nasaf beat ATK Mohun Bagan 6-0 in AFC Cup on September 22, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Nasaf in Karshi.