Nasaf 1–2 Al Kuwait: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Nasaf

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Al Kuwait

Z. Marušić 43'

Amr Abd El Fattah Ammouri 55'

Y. Jabrane 47' (pen)

11/27/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nasaf58%

×Draw23%

Al Kuwait20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NasafExpected goals in this matchAl Kuwait

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.97

Nasaf

1.85

Al Kuwait

0.97

Nasaf creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

2.71

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Nasaf

2.71

Al Kuwait

0.94

allows per match

Nasaf

1.00

Al Kuwait

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par

Al Kuwait+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Al Kuwait →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw

80%

Nasaf or Al Kuwait

77%

Draw or Al Kuwait

42%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+

33%

Al Kuwait wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals

84%

Nasaf 2+ goals

55%

Nasaf 3+ goals

28%

Al Kuwait 1+ goals

62%

Al Kuwait 2+ goals

25%

Al Kuwait 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)

75%

Al Kuwait (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Al Kuwait away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 2.71 + Al Kuwait defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Al Kuwait attack 0.94 + Nasaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nasaf scores more

58%

level

23%

Al Kuwait scores more

20%

Nasaf at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

J. Jighauri

Nasaf · F

8.0

Match Events

4'

39'

43'

45+2'

47'

Y. JabranePenalty

55'

Amr Abd El Fattah Ammouri

59'

Amoory

62'

M. Rahmatov← G. Gaybullaev

62'

Victor da Silva← B. Abdiholiqov

68'

Abd Al Rahman Kameel

75'

M. Stanojević← J. Siddiqov

81'

Ebrahim Kameel← Mohammad Al Rashedi

81'

Fahad Al Hajeri← Mohammad Daham

88'

A. Akhrorov← J. Jighauri

90+5'

Abduvokhid Nematov

90+1'

Khaled Al Kharqawi← Faisal Al Harbi

90+4'

Mohamed Marhoon← T. Khenissi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NasafAl

Overview

58%Possession42%

15Total Shots8

4Corners3

14Fouls11

Shots

15Total Shots8

4On Target5

9Off Target2

2Blocked1

9Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

58%Possession42%

478Total Passes355

393Accurate Passes248

82%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

5Offsides1