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Nasaf vs Al-Faisaly FC — AFC Champions League 2018

Nasaf
Nasaf
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
4/15/2022AFC Champions LeagueAFC Champions League · Group Stage - 3Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nasaf43%
×Draw31%
Al-Faisaly FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.10
Al-Faisaly FC
0.78

Nasaf creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nasaf
1.53
Al-Faisaly FC
0.67

allows per match

Nasaf
0.88
Al-Faisaly FC
0.67

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
74%
Nasaf or Al-Faisaly FC
69%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
57%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
18%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
67%
Nasaf 2+ goals
30%
Nasaf 3+ goals
10%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
54%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
18%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
62%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 1.53 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.10

Al-Faisaly FC attack 0.67 + Nasaf defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nasaf scores more
43%
level
31%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
26%

Nasaf at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasaf vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Faisaly FC beat Nasaf 1-0 in AFC Champions League on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Dammam.