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Nasaf vs Ahal — AFC Cup 2018

Nasaf
Nasaf
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Ahal
Ahal
8/25/2021AFC CupAFC Cup · Zonal FinalsStadion Nasaf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Nasaf53%
×Draw22%
Ahal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nasaf
1.93
Ahal
1.27

Nasaf creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nasaf
2.71
Ahal
1.54

allows per match

Nasaf
1.00
Ahal
1.15

finishing

Nasaf+0.00on par
Ahal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nasaf ↓

Ahal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nasaf or draw
75%
Nasaf or Ahal
78%
Draw or Ahal
47%

Winning margin

Nasaf wins by 2+
30%
Ahal wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nasaf 1+ goals
85%
Nasaf 2+ goals
57%
Nasaf 3+ goals
30%
Ahal 1+ goals
72%
Ahal 2+ goals
36%
Ahal 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Nasaf (draw refunded)
68%
Ahal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nasaf at home — creates 2.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Ahal away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nasaf attack 2.71 + Ahal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.93

Ahal attack 1.54 + Nasaf defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nasaf scores more
53%
level
22%
Ahal scores more
25%

Nasaf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Nasaf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nasaf vs Ahal

Nasaf beat Ahal 3-2 in AFC Cup on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Nasaf in Karshi.