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Narva U21 vs Pärnu — Esiliiga B 2026

Narva U21
Narva U21
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pärnu
Pärnu
7/14/2024Esiliiga BEsiliiga B · Round 18Kalevi Staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Narva U2170%
×Draw17%
Pärnu12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Narva U21
2.43
Pärnu
0.91

Narva U21 creates 167% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 18 away

creates per match

Narva U21
2.53
Pärnu
0.89

allows per match

Narva U21
0.93
Pärnu
2.33

finishing

Narva U21+0.00on par
Pärnu+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Narva U21 ↓

Pärnu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Narva U21 or draw
88%
Narva U21 or Pärnu
83%
Draw or Pärnu
30%

Winning margin

Narva U21 wins by 2+
48%
Pärnu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Narva U21 1+ goals
91%
Narva U21 2+ goals
69%
Narva U21 3+ goals
43%
Pärnu 1+ goals
60%
Pärnu 2+ goals
23%
Pärnu 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Narva U21 (draw refunded)
85%
Pärnu (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Narva U21 at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.93 · 45 matches

Pärnu away — creates 0.89, concedes 2.33 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Narva U21 attack 2.53 + Pärnu defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.43

Pärnu attack 0.89 + Narva U21 defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Narva U21 scores more
70%
level
17%
Pärnu scores more
12%

Narva U21 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Narva U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga B: Narva U21 2–0 Pärnu

Narva U21 beat Pärnu 2-0 in Esiliiga B on July 14, 2024.

The match was played at Kalevi Staadion in Narva.