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Nart Cherkessk vs Sochi II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Nart Cherkessk
Nart Cherkessk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sochi II
Sochi II
6/21/2025Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Stadium Nart

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Nart Cherkessk43%
×Draw27%
Sochi II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nart Cherkessk
1.35
Sochi II
1.07

Nart Cherkessk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nart Cherkessk
1.27
Sochi II
1.25

allows per match

Nart Cherkessk
0.90
Sochi II
1.44

finishing

Nart Cherkessk+0.00on par
Sochi II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nart Cherkessk ↓

Sochi II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Nart Cherkessk or draw
70%
Nart Cherkessk or Sochi II
73%
Draw or Sochi II
57%

Winning margin

Nart Cherkessk wins by 2+
20%
Sochi II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Nart Cherkessk 1+ goals
74%
Nart Cherkessk 2+ goals
39%
Nart Cherkessk 3+ goals
15%
Sochi II 1+ goals
66%
Sochi II 2+ goals
29%
Sochi II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nart Cherkessk (draw refunded)
59%
Sochi II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nart Cherkessk at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.90 · 41 matches

Sochi II away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nart Cherkessk attack 1.27 + Sochi II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sochi II attack 1.25 + Nart Cherkessk defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nart Cherkessk scores more
43%
level
27%
Sochi II scores more
30%

Nart Cherkessk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Nart Cherkessk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Nart Cherkessk 1–2 Sochi II

Sochi II beat Nart Cherkessk 2-1 in Second League - Group 1 on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadium Nart in Cherkessk.