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Nardo vs Øygarden — 2. Division - Group 2 2019

Nardo
Nardo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Øygarden
Øygarden
10/20/20212. Division - Group 22. Division - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Nissekollen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nardo41%
×Draw23%
Øygarden36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nardo
1.75
Øygarden
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nardo
1.42
Øygarden
1.38

allows per match

Nardo
1.89
Øygarden
2.08

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par
Øygarden+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Øygarden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Nardo or draw
64%
Nardo or Øygarden
77%
Draw or Øygarden
59%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+
21%
Øygarden wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals
83%
Nardo 2+ goals
52%
Nardo 3+ goals
25%
Øygarden 1+ goals
80%
Øygarden 2+ goals
48%
Øygarden 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)
53%
Øygarden (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

Øygarden away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 1.42 + Øygarden defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.75

Øygarden attack 1.38 + Nardo defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nardo scores more
41%
level
23%
Øygarden scores more
36%

Nardo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 2: Nardo 2–3 Øygarden

Øygarden beat Nardo 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 2 on October 20, 2021.

The match was played at Nissekollen Kunstgress in Trondheim.