Nardo 3–2 Trønder-Lyn: Result & Stats

Nardo

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Trønder-Lyn

10/14/2023

3. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 24Nissekollen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nardo72%

×Draw14%

Trønder-Lyn14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NardoExpected goals in this matchTrønder-Lyn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.29

1.43

Nardo

3.29

Trønder-Lyn

1.43

Nardo creates 130% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 13 away

3.65

creates per match

1.85

1.00

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Nardo

3.65

Trønder-Lyn

1.85

allows per match

Nardo

1.00

Trønder-Lyn

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par

Trønder-Lyn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Trønder-Lyn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

84%16%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Nardo or draw

86%

Nardo or Trønder-Lyn

86%

Draw or Trønder-Lyn

28%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+

53%

Trønder-Lyn wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals

96%

Nardo 2+ goals

83%

Nardo 3+ goals

62%

Trønder-Lyn 1+ goals

76%

Trønder-Lyn 2+ goals

42%

Trønder-Lyn 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)

84%

Trønder-Lyn (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 3.65, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Trønder-Lyn away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 3.65 + Trønder-Lyn defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 3.29

Trønder-Lyn attack 1.85 + Nardo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Nardo scores more

72%

level

14%

Trønder-Lyn scores more

14%

Nardo at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff