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Nardo vs Tiller — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Nardo
Nardo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Tiller
Tiller
9/23/20233. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 21Nissekollen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Nardo66%
×Draw16%
Tiller18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nardo
2.94
Tiller
1.50

Nardo creates 96% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Nardo
3.65
Tiller
2.00

allows per match

Nardo
1.00
Tiller
2.22

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par
Tiller+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Tiller →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Nardo or draw
82%
Nardo or Tiller
84%
Draw or Tiller
34%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+
46%
Tiller wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals
95%
Nardo 2+ goals
79%
Nardo 3+ goals
55%
Tiller 1+ goals
78%
Tiller 2+ goals
44%
Tiller 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)
79%
Tiller (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 3.65, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Tiller away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.22 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 3.65 + Tiller defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.94

Tiller attack 2.00 + Nardo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Nardo scores more
66%
level
16%
Tiller scores more
18%

Nardo at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nardo vs Tiller

Nardo beat Tiller 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Nissekollen Kunstgress in Trondheim.