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Nardo vs Surnadal — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Nardo
Nardo
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Surnadal
Surnadal
10/20/20243. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 25Nissekollen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Nardo77%
×Draw13%
Surnadal10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nardo
3.35
Surnadal
1.19

Nardo creates 182% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Nardo
4.15
Surnadal
1.23

allows per match

Nardo
1.15
Surnadal
2.54

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par
Surnadal+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Surnadal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Nardo or draw
90%
Nardo or Surnadal
87%
Draw or Surnadal
23%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+
59%
Surnadal wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals
96%
Nardo 2+ goals
84%
Nardo 3+ goals
63%
Surnadal 1+ goals
70%
Surnadal 2+ goals
33%
Surnadal 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)
88%
Surnadal (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 4.15, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Surnadal away — creates 1.23, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 4.15 + Surnadal defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 3.35

Surnadal attack 1.23 + Nardo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Nardo scores more
77%
level
13%
Surnadal scores more
10%

Nardo at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nardo vs Surnadal

Nardo beat Surnadal 5-1 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Nissekollen Kunstgress in Trondheim.