Nardo 5–1 Aalesund II: Result & Stats

Nardo

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Aalesund II

S. Saether 85'

F. K. Olsen 70'

B. Bye 57', 26'

E. Tonne 56'

R. Warholm 79'

4/19/2026

3. Division - Girone 2 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nardo55%

×Draw21%

Aalesund II23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NardoExpected goals in this matchAalesund II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.27

Nardo

2.06

Aalesund II

1.27

Nardo creates 62% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 33 away

2.16

creates per match

1.39

1.16

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Nardo

2.16

Aalesund II

1.39

allows per match

Nardo

1.16

Aalesund II

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nardo+0.00on par

Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nardo ↓

Aalesund II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nardo or draw

77%

Nardo or Aalesund II

79%

Draw or Aalesund II

45%

Winning margin

Nardo wins by 2+

33%

Aalesund II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nardo 1+ goals

87%

Nardo 2+ goals

61%

Nardo 3+ goals

34%

Aalesund II 1+ goals

72%

Aalesund II 2+ goals

36%

Aalesund II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Nardo (draw refunded)

70%

Aalesund II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nardo at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.97 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nardo attack 2.16 + Aalesund II defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 2.06

Aalesund II attack 1.39 + Nardo defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nardo scores more

55%

level

21%

Aalesund II scores more

23%

Nardo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nardo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

B. Bye

56'

E. Tonne

57'

B. Bye

70'

F. K. Olsen

79'

R. Warholm

85'

S. Saether

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff