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Nara United vs Ubon UMT — FA Cup 2018

Nara United
Nara United
FT
1 – 0
Ubon UMT
Ubon UMT
7/4/2018FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nara United22%
×Draw30%
Ubon UMT48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nara United
0.75
Ubon UMT
1.25

Ubon UMT creates 67% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nara United
0.50
Ubon UMT
1.00

allows per match

Nara United
1.50
Ubon UMT
1.00

finishing

Nara United+0.00on par
Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nara United ↓

Ubon UMT →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–117%
0–211%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nara United or draw
52%
Nara United or Ubon UMT
70%
Draw or Ubon UMT
78%

Winning margin

Nara United wins by 2+
7%
Ubon UMT wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nara United 1+ goals
53%
Nara United 2+ goals
17%
Nara United 3+ goals
4%
Ubon UMT 1+ goals
71%
Ubon UMT 2+ goals
36%
Ubon UMT 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nara United (draw refunded)
32%
Ubon UMT (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nara United at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nara United attack 0.50 + Ubon UMT defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Ubon UMT attack 1.00 + Nara United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Nara United scores more
22%
level
30%
Ubon UMT scores more
48%

Ubon UMT at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ubon UMT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Nara United 1–0 Ubon UMT

Nara United beat Ubon UMT 1-0 in FA Cup on July 4, 2018.