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Nara United vs Rayong FC — FA Cup 2018

Nara United
Nara United
AET
0 – 0
Rayong FC
Rayong FC
6/27/2018FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nara United17%
×Draw21%
Rayong FC62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nara United
1.00
Rayong FC
2.08

Rayong FC creates 108% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Nara United
0.50
Rayong FC
2.67

allows per match

Nara United
1.50
Rayong FC
1.50

finishing

Nara United+0.00on par
Rayong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nara United ↓

Rayong FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Nara United or draw
38%
Nara United or Rayong FC
79%
Draw or Rayong FC
83%

Winning margin

Nara United wins by 2+
6%
Rayong FC wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Nara United 1+ goals
63%
Nara United 2+ goals
26%
Nara United 3+ goals
8%
Rayong FC 1+ goals
87%
Rayong FC 2+ goals
61%
Rayong FC 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Nara United (draw refunded)
22%
Rayong FC (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nara United at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Rayong FC away — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nara United attack 0.50 + Rayong FC defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.00

Rayong FC attack 2.67 + Nara United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nara United scores more
17%
level
21%
Rayong FC scores more
62%

Rayong FC at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Rayong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nara United vs Rayong FC

Nara United and Rayong FC drew 0-0 in FA Cup on June 27, 2018.