Nara United 0–5 Chiangrai United: Result & Stats

Nara United

0 – 5

Chiangrai United

8/1/2018

FA Cup · Quarter-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Nara United14%

×Draw19%

Chiangrai United67%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nara UnitedExpected goals in this matchChiangrai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

2.25

Nara United

0.91

Chiangrai United

2.25

Chiangrai United creates 147% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

0.50

creates per match

3.00

1.50

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Nara United

0.50

Chiangrai United

3.00

allows per match

Nara United

1.50

Chiangrai United

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nara United+0.00on par

Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nara United ↓

Chiangrai United →

0–04%

0–110%

0–211%

0–38%

0–45%

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–42%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Nara United or draw

33%

Nara United or Chiangrai United

81%

Draw or Chiangrai United

86%

Winning margin

Nara United wins by 2+

Chiangrai United wins by 2+

44%

Team goals

Nara United 1+ goals

60%

Nara United 2+ goals

23%

Nara United 3+ goals

Chiangrai United 1+ goals

89%

Chiangrai United 2+ goals

65%

Chiangrai United 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Nara United (draw refunded)

17%

Chiangrai United (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Nara United at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Nara United attack 0.50 + Chiangrai United defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 0.91

Chiangrai United attack 3.00 + Nara United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Nara United scores more

14%

level

19%

Chiangrai United scores more

67%

Chiangrai United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Chiangrai United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff