NAPSA Stars 1–0 ZESCO United: Result & Stats

NAPSA Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

ZESCO United

10/30/2025

Super League · Round 8REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

NAPSA Stars36%

×Draw32%

ZESCO United32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAPSA StarsExpected goals in this matchZESCO United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

0.90

NAPSA Stars

0.96

ZESCO United

0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 94 home / 110 away

1.07

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

NAPSA Stars

1.07

ZESCO United

1.00

allows per match

NAPSA Stars

0.80

ZESCO United

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par

ZESCO United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

ZESCO United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw

68%

NAPSA Stars or ZESCO United

68%

Draw or ZESCO United

64%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+

13%

ZESCO United wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals

62%

NAPSA Stars 2+ goals

25%

NAPSA Stars 3+ goals

7%

ZESCO United 1+ goals

59%

ZESCO United 2+ goals

23%

ZESCO United 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)

52%

ZESCO United (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

ZESCO United away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + ZESCO United defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.96

ZESCO United attack 1.00 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more

36%

level

32%

ZESCO United scores more

32%

NAPSA Stars at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff