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NAPSA Stars vs Trident — Super League 2019

NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Trident
Trident
11/8/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Vodafone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

NAPSA Stars45%
×Draw31%
Trident24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAPSA Stars
1.16
Trident
0.76

NAPSA Stars creates 53% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

creates per match

NAPSA Stars
1.07
Trident
0.71

allows per match

NAPSA Stars
0.80
Trident
1.24

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par
Trident+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Trident →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw
76%
NAPSA Stars or Trident
69%
Draw or Trident
55%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
19%
Trident wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
69%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
32%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
11%
Trident 1+ goals
53%
Trident 2+ goals
18%
Trident 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
65%
Trident (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Trident away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Trident defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.16

Trident attack 0.71 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more
45%
level
31%
Trident scores more
24%

NAPSA Stars at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAPSA Stars vs Trident

NAPSA Stars and Trident drew 0-0 in Super League on November 8, 2023.

The match was played at Vodafone Stadium in Lusaka.