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NAPSA Stars vs Prison Leopards — Super League 2019

NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Prison Leopards
Prison Leopards
12/2/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Vodafone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

NAPSA Stars47%
×Draw30%
Prison Leopards24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAPSA Stars
1.23
Prison Leopards
0.79

NAPSA Stars creates 56% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 95 away

creates per match

NAPSA Stars
1.07
Prison Leopards
0.78

allows per match

NAPSA Stars
0.80
Prison Leopards
1.40

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par
Prison Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Prison Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw
76%
NAPSA Stars or Prison Leopards
70%
Draw or Prison Leopards
53%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
21%
Prison Leopards wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
71%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
35%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
13%
Prison Leopards 1+ goals
55%
Prison Leopards 2+ goals
19%
Prison Leopards 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
66%
Prison Leopards (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Prison Leopards away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Prison Leopards defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Prison Leopards attack 0.78 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more
47%
level
30%
Prison Leopards scores more
24%

NAPSA Stars at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NAPSA Stars 1 – 0 Prison Leopards

NAPSA Stars beat Prison Leopards 1-0 in Super League on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Vodafone Stadium in Lusaka.