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NAPSA Stars vs Kabwe Warriors — Super League 2019

NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kabwe Warriors
Kabwe Warriors
2/17/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 21Edwin Imboela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

NAPSA Stars38%
×Draw32%
Kabwe Warriors30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAPSA Stars
1.00
Kabwe Warriors
0.85

NAPSA Stars creates 18% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 111 away

creates per match

NAPSA Stars
1.07
Kabwe Warriors
0.90

allows per match

NAPSA Stars
0.80
Kabwe Warriors
0.92

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par
Kabwe Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Kabwe Warriors →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw
70%
NAPSA Stars or Kabwe Warriors
68%
Draw or Kabwe Warriors
62%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
15%
Kabwe Warriors wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
63%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
26%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
8%
Kabwe Warriors 1+ goals
57%
Kabwe Warriors 2+ goals
21%
Kabwe Warriors 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
56%
Kabwe Warriors (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Kabwe Warriors away — creates 0.90, concedes 0.92 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Kabwe Warriors defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Kabwe Warriors attack 0.90 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more
38%
level
32%
Kabwe Warriors scores more
30%

NAPSA Stars at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: NAPSA Stars vs Kabwe Warriors

NAPSA Stars beat Kabwe Warriors 1-0 in Super League on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Edwin Imboela Stadium in Lusaka.