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NAPSA Stars vs Green Buffaloes — Super League 2019

NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Green Buffaloes
Green Buffaloes
11/23/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 12REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

NAPSA Stars42%
×Draw31%
Green Buffaloes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAPSA Stars
1.10
Green Buffaloes
0.81

NAPSA Stars creates 36% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 110 away

creates per match

NAPSA Stars
1.07
Green Buffaloes
0.82

allows per match

NAPSA Stars
0.80
Green Buffaloes
1.13

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par
Green Buffaloes+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Green Buffaloes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw
73%
NAPSA Stars or Green Buffaloes
69%
Draw or Green Buffaloes
58%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
17%
Green Buffaloes wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
67%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
30%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
10%
Green Buffaloes 1+ goals
56%
Green Buffaloes 2+ goals
19%
Green Buffaloes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
61%
Green Buffaloes (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Green Buffaloes away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.13 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Green Buffaloes defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Green Buffaloes attack 0.82 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more
42%
level
31%
Green Buffaloes scores more
27%

NAPSA Stars at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: NAPSA Stars 1–2 Green Buffaloes

Green Buffaloes beat NAPSA Stars 2-1 in Super League on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at REIZ Arena in Lusaka.