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NAPSA Stars vs Forest Rangers — Super League 2019

NAPSA Stars
NAPSA Stars
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Forest Rangers
Forest Rangers
4/7/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 27REIZ Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

NAPSA Stars41%
×Draw30%
Forest Rangers29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

NAPSA Stars
1.13
Forest Rangers
0.90

NAPSA Stars creates 26% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 93 away

creates per match

NAPSA Stars
1.07
Forest Rangers
1.00

allows per match

NAPSA Stars
0.80
Forest Rangers
1.18

finishing

NAPSA Stars+0.00on par
Forest Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAPSA Stars ↓

Forest Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

NAPSA Stars or draw
71%
NAPSA Stars or Forest Rangers
70%
Draw or Forest Rangers
59%

Winning margin

NAPSA Stars wins by 2+
17%
Forest Rangers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

NAPSA Stars 1+ goals
68%
NAPSA Stars 2+ goals
31%
NAPSA Stars 3+ goals
11%
Forest Rangers 1+ goals
59%
Forest Rangers 2+ goals
23%
Forest Rangers 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

NAPSA Stars (draw refunded)
59%
Forest Rangers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAPSA Stars at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 94 matches

Forest Rangers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.18 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAPSA Stars attack 1.07 + Forest Rangers defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Forest Rangers attack 1.00 + NAPSA Stars defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

NAPSA Stars scores more
41%
level
30%
Forest Rangers scores more
29%

NAPSA Stars at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "NAPSA Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: NAPSA Stars 1–0 Forest Rangers

NAPSA Stars beat Forest Rangers 1-0 in Super League on April 7, 2024.

The match was played at REIZ Arena in Lusaka.