Napredak 1–0 Mladost Novi Sad: Result & Stats

Napredak

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Mladost Novi Sad

8/30/2022

Super Liga · Round 9Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Napredak41%

×Draw30%

Mladost Novi Sad29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapredakExpected goals in this matchMladost Novi Sad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.93

Napredak

1.15

Mladost Novi Sad

0.93

Napredak creates 24% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 20 away

1.10

creates per match

0.65

1.21

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Napredak

1.10

Mladost Novi Sad

0.65

allows per match

Napredak

1.21

Mladost Novi Sad

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par

Mladost Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Mladost Novi Sad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Napredak or draw

71%

Napredak or Mladost Novi Sad

70%

Draw or Mladost Novi Sad

59%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+

17%

Mladost Novi Sad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals

68%

Napredak 2+ goals

32%

Napredak 3+ goals

11%

Mladost Novi Sad 1+ goals

61%

Mladost Novi Sad 2+ goals

24%

Mladost Novi Sad 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)

58%

Mladost Novi Sad (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

Mladost Novi Sad away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + Mladost Novi Sad defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Mladost Novi Sad attack 0.65 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Napredak scores more

41%

level

30%

Mladost Novi Sad scores more

29%

Napredak at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff