Napredak 3–1 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Napredak

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

IMT Novi Beograd

S. Hajdin 70'

S. Bukorac 66'

M. Lukovic 43' (OG)

O. Thill 53'

8/31/2025

Super Liga · Round 7Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Napredak40%

×Draw27%

IMT Novi Beograd33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapredakExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Napredak

1.35

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Napredak creates 12% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 55 away

1.10

creates per match

1.20

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Napredak

1.10

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Napredak

1.21

IMT Novi Beograd

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Napredak or draw

67%

Napredak or IMT Novi Beograd

73%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

60%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+

18%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals

74%

Napredak 2+ goals

39%

Napredak 3+ goals

15%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

70%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

34%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)

54%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.35

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Napredak scores more

40%

level

27%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

33%

Napredak at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44

S. Hajdin

Napredak · M

7.6

Match Events

21'

Antoine Batisse

28'

M. Sissako← L. Lukovic

37'

Filip Krstić

43'

M. LukovicOwn goal

45+3'

Stefan Bukorac

46'

S. Popovic← M. Lukovic

46'

O. Thill← U. Bonnet

53'

O. Thill

60'

M. Vulic← M. Toseski

60'

N. Bogdanovski← A. Lutovac

66'

S. Bukorac

70'

S. Hajdin↳ A. Majdevac

71'

K. Campbell← N. Glisic

74'

Vladimir Radočaj

75'

M. Jovic← V. Radocaj

81'

N. Marinkovic← S. Hajdin

81'

L. Zlicic← F. Krstic

83'

Miloš Vulić

86'

M. Saric← A. Majdevac

89'

Kenroy Campbell

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapredakIMT

Overview

53%Possession47%

17Total Shots7

7Corners2

17Fouls13

Shots

17Total Shots7

5On Target2

9Off Target4

3Blocked1

15Inside Box4

2Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

419Total Passes377

332Accurate Passes290

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls13

3Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides1