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Napredak vs FK Vozdovac — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
9/2/2023Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 6Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Napredak44%
×Draw27%
FK Vozdovac29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.38
FK Vozdovac
1.05

Napredak creates 31% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 109 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
FK Vozdovac
0.89

allows per match

Napredak
1.21
FK Vozdovac
1.65

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

FK Vozdovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
71%
Napredak or FK Vozdovac
73%
Draw or FK Vozdovac
56%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
21%
FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
75%
Napredak 2+ goals
40%
Napredak 3+ goals
16%
FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
65%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
28%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
61%
FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Napredak scores more
44%
level
27%
FK Vozdovac scores more
29%

Napredak at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napredak vs FK Vozdovac

Napredak beat FK Vozdovac 2-1 in Super Liga on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.