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Napredak vs FK Partizan — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
FK Partizan
FK Partizan
5/8/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Championship Round - 4Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Napredak25%
×Draw25%
FK Partizan49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.04
FK Partizan
1.56

FK Partizan creates 50% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 142 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
FK Partizan
1.90

allows per match

Napredak
1.22
FK Partizan
0.97

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
FK Partizan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

FK Partizan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
51%
Napredak or FK Partizan
75%
Draw or FK Partizan
75%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
9%
FK Partizan wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
65%
Napredak 2+ goals
28%
Napredak 3+ goals
9%
FK Partizan 1+ goals
79%
FK Partizan 2+ goals
46%
FK Partizan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
34%
FK Partizan (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.22 · 144 matches

FK Partizan away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.97 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + FK Partizan defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.04

FK Partizan attack 1.90 + Napredak defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Napredak scores more
25%
level
25%
FK Partizan scores more
49%

FK Partizan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FK Partizan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Napredak 3–3 FK Partizan

Napredak and FK Partizan drew 3-3 in Super Liga on May 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.