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Napredak vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Super Liga 2026

Napredak
Napredak
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
2/15/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 23Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Napredak18%
×Draw22%
FK Crvena Zvezda59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
0.93
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.87

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 101% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 142 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.53

allows per match

Napredak
1.21
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.76

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
41%
Napredak or FK Crvena Zvezda
78%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
82%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
6%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
61%
Napredak 2+ goals
24%
Napredak 3+ goals
7%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
85%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
56%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
24%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Napredak scores more
18%
level
22%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
59%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Napredak 0–4 FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Napredak 4-0 in Super Liga on February 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Kruševac.