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Napredak vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

Napredak
Napredak
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
9/22/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion Mladost (Kruševac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Napredak57%
×Draw25%
Dinamo Vranje18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.63
Dinamo Vranje
0.79

Napredak creates 106% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 19 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

Napredak
1.21
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
82%
Napredak or Dinamo Vranje
75%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
43%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
31%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
80%
Napredak 2+ goals
48%
Napredak 3+ goals
22%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
55%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
76%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.63

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Napredak scores more
57%
level
25%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
18%

Napredak at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napredak vs Dinamo Vranje

Napredak beat Dinamo Vranje 3-0 in Super Liga on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost (Kruševac).