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Napredak vs Backa — Super Liga 2018

Napredak
Napredak
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Backa
Backa
8/4/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 3Stadion Mladost (Kruševac)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Napredak55%
×Draw25%
Backa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napredak
1.60
Backa
0.85

Napredak creates 88% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 38 away

creates per match

Napredak
1.10
Backa
0.50

allows per match

Napredak
1.21
Backa
2.11

finishing

Napredak+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napredak ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Napredak or draw
80%
Napredak or Backa
75%
Draw or Backa
45%

Winning margin

Napredak wins by 2+
29%
Backa wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Napredak 1+ goals
80%
Napredak 2+ goals
47%
Napredak 3+ goals
22%
Backa 1+ goals
57%
Backa 2+ goals
21%
Backa 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Napredak (draw refunded)
73%
Backa (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napredak at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.21 · 145 matches

Backa away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.11 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napredak attack 1.10 + Backa defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.60

Backa attack 0.50 + Napredak defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Napredak scores more
55%
level
25%
Backa scores more
20%

Napredak at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Napredak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Napredak 1–1 Backa

Napredak and Backa drew 1-1 in Super Liga on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost (Kruševac).