Napoli 1–1 Real Sociedad: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Real Sociedad

12/10/2020

UEFA Europa League · Group F - 6Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Napoli46%

×Draw25%

Real Sociedad30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchReal Sociedad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.24

Napoli

1.60

Real Sociedad

1.24

Napoli creates 29% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

2.20

creates per match

1.08

1.40

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Napoli

2.20

Real Sociedad

1.08

allows per match

Napoli

1.40

Real Sociedad

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Real Sociedad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Real Sociedad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

70%

Napoli or Real Sociedad

75%

Draw or Real Sociedad

54%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

23%

Real Sociedad wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

80%

Napoli 2+ goals

47%

Napoli 3+ goals

22%

Real Sociedad 1+ goals

71%

Real Sociedad 2+ goals

35%

Real Sociedad 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

61%

Real Sociedad (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Real Sociedad away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.20 + Real Sociedad defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Real Sociedad attack 1.08 + Napoli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Napoli scores more

46%

level

25%

Real Sociedad scores more

30%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff