Napoli 3–0 Rangers: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rangers

L. Østigård 80'

G. Simeone 16', 11'

10/26/2022

UEFA Champions League · Group A - 5Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Napoli73%

×Draw17%

Rangers10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchRangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

0.72

Napoli

2.29

Rangers

0.72

Napoli creates 218% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 9 away

2.15

creates per match

0.44

1.00

allows per match

2.44

creates per match

Napoli

2.15

Rangers

0.44

allows per match

Napoli

1.00

Rangers

2.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

90%

Napoli or Rangers

83%

Draw or Rangers

27%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

49%

Rangers wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

90%

Napoli 2+ goals

66%

Napoli 3+ goals

40%

Rangers 1+ goals

51%

Rangers 2+ goals

16%

Rangers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

88%

Rangers (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.15, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Rangers away — creates 0.44, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.15 + Rangers defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.29

Rangers attack 0.44 + Napoli defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Napoli scores more

73%

level

17%

Rangers scores more

10%

Napoli at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

G. Simeone

Napoli · F

8.5

Match Events

9'

Ben Davies

11'

G. Simeone↳ G. Di Lorenzo

16'

G. Simeone↳ Mário Rui

42'

John Lundstram

46'

F. Sakala← S. Wright

67'

S. Arfield← M. Tillman

68'

A. Čolak← A. Morelos

73'

G. Gaetano← E. Elmas

73'

H. Lozano← M. Politano

76'

B. Barišić← L. King

80'

L. Østigård↳ G. Raspadori

83'

P. Zieliński← S. Lobotka

83'

A. Zerbin← G. Raspadori

86'

A. Zanoli← G. Di Lorenzo

88'

Min-jae Kim

90'

Mário Rui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliRangers

Overview

65%Possession35%

14Total Shots9

2Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target1

5Off Target4

3Blocked4

11Inside Box6

3Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

792Total Passes418

728Accurate Passes344

92%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2