Napoli 2–0 Qarabag: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Qarabag

M. Jankovic 72' (OG)

S. McTominay 65'

11/25/2025

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 5Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Napoli52%

×Draw24%

Qarabag24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchQarabag

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.11

Napoli

1.76

Qarabag

1.11

Napoli creates 59% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

2.11

creates per match

1.29

0.94

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Napoli

2.11

Qarabag

1.29

allows per match

Napoli

0.94

Qarabag

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par

Qarabag+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Qarabag →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

76%

Napoli or Qarabag

76%

Draw or Qarabag

48%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

29%

Qarabag wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

83%

Napoli 2+ goals

52%

Napoli 3+ goals

26%

Qarabag 1+ goals

67%

Qarabag 2+ goals

30%

Qarabag 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

69%

Qarabag (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Qarabag away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.11 + Qarabag defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.76

Qarabag attack 1.29 + Napoli defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Napoli scores more

52%

level

24%

Qarabag scores more

24%

Napoli at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

43'

50'

55'

60'

60'

O. Kashchuk← Leandro Andrade

64'

M. Politano← S. Beukema

65'

S. McTominay

72'

M. JankovicOwn goal

75'

E. Elmas← N. Lang

75'

L. Lucca← R. Hojlund

75'

N. Akhundzade← C. Duran

75'

Dani Bolt← Matheus Silva

75'

T. Bayramov← E. Cafarquliyev

77'

Amir Rrahmani

90'

Juan Jesus← A. Buongiorno

90'

A. Vergara← David Neres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliQarabag

Overview

55%Possession45%

17Total Shots11

3.45Expected Goals (xG)0.49

6Corners4

18Fouls6

Shots

17Total Shots11

8On Target3

4Off Target3

5Blocked5

14Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

55%Possession45%

545Total Passes454

484Accurate Passes387

89%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

1.95Goals Prevented1.95

Discipline

18Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2