Napoli 2–0 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Napoli

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool

9/17/2019

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 1Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Napoli42%

×Draw24%

Liverpool34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.41

Napoli

1.58

Liverpool

1.41

Napoli creates 12% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

2.03

creates per match

1.60

1.22

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Napoli

2.03

Liverpool

1.60

allows per match

Napoli

1.22

Liverpool

1.13

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Napoli-0.36scores less

Liverpool+0.03on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

66%

Napoli or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

58%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

21%

Liverpool wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

79%

Napoli 2+ goals

47%

Napoli 3+ goals

21%

Liverpool 1+ goals

76%

Liverpool 2+ goals

41%

Liverpool 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

55%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 2.03 + Liverpool defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Liverpool attack 1.60 + Napoli defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Napoli scores more

42%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

34%

Napoli at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff