Napoli 1–0 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie A

Napoli

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lecce

G. Di Lorenzo 73'

10/26/2024

Serie A · Round 9Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Napoli55%

×Draw25%

Lecce20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NapoliExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.85

Napoli

1.58

Lecce

0.85

Napoli creates 86% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.56

creates per match

0.74

0.97

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Napoli

1.56

Lecce

0.74

allows per match

Napoli

0.97

Lecce

1.60

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

Napoli+0.16scores more

Lecce-0.18scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Napoli or draw

80%

Napoli or Lecce

75%

Draw or Lecce

45%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+

29%

Lecce wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals

79%

Napoli 2+ goals

47%

Napoli 3+ goals

21%

Lecce 1+ goals

57%

Lecce 2+ goals

21%

Lecce 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)

73%

Lecce (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Lecce away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.60 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.56 + Lecce defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.58

Lecce attack 0.74 + Napoli defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Napoli scores more

55%

level

25%

Lecce scores more

20%

Napoli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Amir Rrahmani

Napoli · D

8.3

Match Events

19'

Cyril Ngonge

28'

Giovanni Di LorenzoGoal cancelled

51'

Giovanni Di Lorenzo

57'

M. Politano← C. Ngonge

69'

N. Sansone← L. Banda

69'

B. Pierret← H. Rafia

71'

G. Raspadori← B. Gilmour

72'

K. Kvaratskhelia← David Neres

73'

G. Di Lorenzo

77'

Santiago Pierotti

77'

A. Rebić← L. Coulibaly

84'

R. Oudin← S. Pierotti

85'

M. Folorunsho← R. Lukaku

90'

Mathías Olivera

90+3'

Ante Rebić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NapoliLecce

Overview

65%Possession35%

24Total Shots11

2.69Expected Goals (xG)0.61

16Corners5

13Fouls7

Shots

24Total Shots11

8On Target2

7Off Target4

9Blocked5

17Inside Box3

7Outside Box8

Passing

65%Possession35%

495Total Passes272

425Accurate Passes198

86%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

1.03Goals Prevented1.03

Discipline

13Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Serie A: Napoli 1–0 Lecce

Napoli beat Lecce 1-0 in Serie A on October 26, 2024.

Goals: G. Di Lorenzo (73').

Napoli controlled possession (65%) and registered 24 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.

Napoli vs Lecce — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Napoli 1–0 Lecce