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Napoli vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

Napoli
Napoli
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
12/8/2024Serie ASerie A · Round 15Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Napoli46%
×Draw27%
Lazio27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.41
Lazio
1.02

Napoli creates 38% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 26 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.56
Lazio
1.08

allows per match

Napoli
0.97
Lazio
1.26

finishing

Napoli+0.16scores more
Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
73%
Napoli or Lazio
73%
Draw or Lazio
54%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
22%
Lazio wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
76%
Napoli 2+ goals
41%
Napoli 3+ goals
17%
Lazio 1+ goals
64%
Lazio 2+ goals
27%
Lazio 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
63%
Lazio (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.97 · 29 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.56 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Lazio attack 1.08 + Napoli defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Napoli scores more
46%
level
27%
Lazio scores more
27%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Napoli 0 – 1 Lazio

Lazio beat Napoli 1-0 in Serie A on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.