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Napoli vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Napoli
Napoli
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Crotone
Crotone
3/12/2017Serie ASerie A · Round 28Stadio San Paolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Napoli66%
×Draw19%
Crotone15%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
2.25
Crotone
0.95

Napoli creates 137% more chances

Season form · 142 home / 32 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.92
Crotone
0.97

allows per match

Napoli
0.93
Crotone
2.59

finishing

Napoli+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
85%
Napoli or Crotone
81%
Draw or Crotone
34%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
43%
Crotone wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
89%
Napoli 2+ goals
65%
Napoli 3+ goals
39%
Crotone 1+ goals
61%
Crotone 2+ goals
25%
Crotone 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
82%
Crotone (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 142 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.59 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.92 + Crotone defence 2.59 → ÷2 → 2.25

Crotone attack 0.97 + Napoli defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Napoli scores more
66%
level
19%
Crotone scores more
15%

Napoli at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Napoli vs Crotone

Napoli beat Crotone 3-0 in Serie A on March 12, 2017.

The match was played at Stadio San Paolo in Naples.