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Napoli vs AS Roma — Serie A 2026

Napoli
Napoli
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
AS Roma
AS Roma
G. Simeone 86'
V. Osimhen 17'
S. El Shaarawy 75'
1/29/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 20Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Napoli46%
×Draw26%
AS Roma28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli
1.48
AS Roma
1.11

Napoli creates 33% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 26 away

creates per match

Napoli
1.61
AS Roma
1.32

allows per match

Napoli
0.90
AS Roma
1.34

finishing

Napoli+0.08on par
AS Roma-0.09on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli ↓

AS Roma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Napoli or draw
72%
Napoli or AS Roma
74%
Draw or AS Roma
54%

Winning margin

Napoli wins by 2+
23%
AS Roma wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Napoli 1+ goals
77%
Napoli 2+ goals
43%
Napoli 3+ goals
19%
AS Roma 1+ goals
67%
AS Roma 2+ goals
30%
AS Roma 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Napoli (draw refunded)
62%
AS Roma (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.90 · 39 matches

AS Roma away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli attack 1.61 + AS Roma defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.48

AS Roma attack 1.32 + Napoli defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Napoli scores more
46%
level
26%
AS Roma scores more
28%

Napoli at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
P. ZielińskiNapoliNapoli · M
7.7

Match Events

17'
V. Osimhen↳ K. Kvaratskhelia
33'
Paulo Dybala
46'
S. El Shaarawy← L. Spinazzola
68'
Victor Osimhen
68'
M. Olivera← Mário Rui
68'
E. Elmas← K. Kvaratskhelia
70'
Stephan El Shaarawy
73'
A. Belotti← T. Abraham
75'
S. El Shaarawy↳ N. Zalewski
76'
G. Simeone← H. Lozano
76'
G. Raspadori← V. Osimhen
83'
E. Bove← L. Pellegrini
83'
B. Tahirovic← N. Matić
86'
G. Simeone↳ P. Zieliński
89'
C. Volpato← B. Cristante
90+1'
T. Ndombélé← P. Zieliński

Possession

57%Napoli

Shots

11Napoli

Pass accuracy

52%Napoli

Statistics

NapoliAS
Overview
57%Possession43%
11Total Shots11
1.00Expected Goals (xG)0.79
3Corners8
8Fouls14
Shots
11Total Shots11
6On Target3
4Off Target4
1Blocked4
6Inside Box9
5Outside Box2
Passing
57%Possession43%
600Total Passes445
509Accurate Passes347
85%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls14
1Yellow Cards2

Match Recap: Napoli vs AS Roma

Napoli beat AS Roma 2-1 in Serie A on January 29, 2023.

Goals: V. Osimhen (17'), S. El Shaarawy (75'), G. Simeone (86').

Napoli controlled possession (57%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Napoli.