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AS Roma vs Napoli — Serie A 2018

AS Roma
AS Roma
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Napoli
Napoli
David Neres 36'
11/30/2025Serie ASerie A · Round 13Stadio Olimpico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

AS Roma41%
×Draw28%
Napoli31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AS Roma
1.28
Napoli
1.08

AS Roma creates 19% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 23 away

creates per match

AS Roma
1.65
Napoli
1.41

allows per match

AS Roma
0.76
Napoli
0.92

finishing

AS Roma+0.25scores more
Napoli+0.02on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Roma ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AS Roma or draw
69%
AS Roma or Napoli
72%
Draw or Napoli
59%

Winning margin

AS Roma wins by 2+
18%
Napoli wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

AS Roma 1+ goals
72%
AS Roma 2+ goals
37%
AS Roma 3+ goals
14%
Napoli 1+ goals
66%
Napoli 2+ goals
29%
Napoli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AS Roma (draw refunded)
57%
Napoli (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Roma at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.76 · 20 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.92 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Roma attack 1.65 + Napoli defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.28

Napoli attack 1.41 + AS Roma defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AS Roma scores more
41%
level
28%
Napoli scores more
31%

AS Roma at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AS Roma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'
David Neres↳ R. Hojlund
46'
T. Baldanzi← E. Ferguson
54'
Bryan Cristante
62'
Stanislav Lobotka
62'
N. El Aynaoui← B. Cristante
62'
P. Dybala← M. Soule
64'
Sam Beukema
69'
M. Politano← N. Lang
73'
Tommaso Baldanzi
80'
L. Bailey← L. Pellegrini
80'
E. Elmas← R. Hojlund
82'
S. El Shaarawy← Wesley Franca
85'
L. Lucca← David Neres
86'
Evan Ndicka
90+3'
Stephan El Shaarawy
90+6'
Mathías Olivera

Possession

56%AS

Shots

8AS

Pass accuracy

51%AS

Statistics

ASNapoli
Overview
56%Possession44%
8Total Shots7
0.52Expected Goals (xG)1.17
4Corners2
14Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots7
2On Target5
5Off Target2
1Blocked0
5Inside Box3
3Outside Box4
Passing
56%Possession44%
546Total Passes434
449Accurate Passes343
82%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
0.50Goals Prevented0.50
Discipline
14Fouls13
4Yellow Cards3
0Offsides4

AS Roma 0 – 1 Napoli

Napoli beat AS Roma 1-0 in Serie A on November 30, 2025.

Goals: David Neres (36').

AS Roma controlled possession (56%) and registered 8 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.