Napoli U20 3–1 Fiorentina U20: Result & Stats

Napoli U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Fiorentina U20

12/7/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 14Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Napoli U2033%

×Draw26%

Fiorentina U2041%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Napoli U20Expected goals in this matchFiorentina U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.41

Napoli U20

1.23

Fiorentina U20

1.41

Fiorentina U20 creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

1.10

creates per match

1.62

1.20

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Napoli U20

1.10

Fiorentina U20

1.62

allows per match

Napoli U20

1.20

Fiorentina U20

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Napoli U20+0.00on par

Fiorentina U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli U20 ↓

Fiorentina U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Napoli U20 or draw

59%

Napoli U20 or Fiorentina U20

74%

Draw or Fiorentina U20

67%

Winning margin

Napoli U20 wins by 2+

14%

Fiorentina U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Napoli U20 1+ goals

71%

Napoli U20 2+ goals

35%

Napoli U20 3+ goals

13%

Fiorentina U20 1+ goals

76%

Fiorentina U20 2+ goals

41%

Fiorentina U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Napoli U20 (draw refunded)

44%

Fiorentina U20 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli U20 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Fiorentina U20 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli U20 attack 1.10 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fiorentina U20 attack 1.62 + Napoli U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Napoli U20 scores more

33%

level

26%

Fiorentina U20 scores more

41%

Fiorentina U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff