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Napoli U20 vs Atalanta U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Napoli U20
Napoli U20
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atalanta U20
Atalanta U20
1/21/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 21Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Napoli U2037%
×Draw27%
Atalanta U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli U20
1.29
Atalanta U20
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 38 away

creates per match

Napoli U20
1.10
Atalanta U20
1.37

allows per match

Napoli U20
1.20
Atalanta U20
1.47

finishing

Napoli U20+0.00on par
Atalanta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli U20 ↓

Atalanta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Napoli U20 or draw
63%
Napoli U20 or Atalanta U20
73%
Draw or Atalanta U20
63%

Winning margin

Napoli U20 wins by 2+
16%
Atalanta U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Napoli U20 1+ goals
72%
Napoli U20 2+ goals
37%
Napoli U20 3+ goals
14%
Atalanta U20 1+ goals
72%
Atalanta U20 2+ goals
37%
Atalanta U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Napoli U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Atalanta U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli U20 at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Atalanta U20 away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli U20 attack 1.10 + Atalanta U20 defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Atalanta U20 attack 1.37 + Napoli U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Napoli U20 scores more
37%
level
27%
Atalanta U20 scores more
37%

Napoli U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Napoli U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Napoli U20 3–1 Atalanta U20

Napoli U20 beat Atalanta U20 3-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on January 21, 2026.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo in Cercola.