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Napoli U19 vs Udinese U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Napoli U19
Napoli U19
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Udinese U19
Udinese U19
Unknown 120+10' (pen), 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+4' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
F. Gioielli 74'
G. Vigliotti 19'
Unknown 120+11' (pen), 120+10' (pen), 120+9' (pen), 120+8' (pen), 120+7' (pen), 120+6' (pen), 120+5' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen)
R. A. Asante 66', 62' (pen)
5/18/2024Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Promotion Play-offs - Quarter-finalsStadio Giuseppe Piccolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Napoli U1950%
×Draw23%
Udinese U1927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli U19
1.78
Udinese U19
1.24

Napoli U19 creates 44% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 54 away

creates per match

Napoli U19
1.76
Udinese U19
1.69

allows per match

Napoli U19
0.79
Udinese U19
1.80

finishing

Napoli U19+0.00on par
Udinese U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli U19 ↓

Udinese U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Napoli U19 or draw
73%
Napoli U19 or Udinese U19
77%
Draw or Udinese U19
50%

Winning margin

Napoli U19 wins by 2+
27%
Udinese U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Napoli U19 1+ goals
83%
Napoli U19 2+ goals
53%
Napoli U19 3+ goals
26%
Udinese U19 1+ goals
71%
Udinese U19 2+ goals
35%
Udinese U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Napoli U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Udinese U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.79 · 42 matches

Udinese U19 away — creates 1.69, concedes 1.80 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli U19 attack 1.76 + Udinese U19 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.78

Udinese U19 attack 1.69 + Napoli U19 defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Napoli U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Udinese U19 scores more
27%

Napoli U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Napoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
G. Vigliotti
62'
R. A. AsantePenalty
66'
R. A. Asante
74'
F. Gioielli
120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Missed penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+5'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+6'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+7'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+8'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+9'
Penalty
120+10'
Penalty
120+10'
Penalty
120+11'
Missed penalty
120+11'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: Napoli U19 2–2 Udinese U19

Napoli U19 and Udinese U19 drew 2-2 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on May 18, 2024.

Goals: G. Vigliotti (19'), R. A. Asante (62' pen, 66'), F. Gioielli (74'), ? (120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+5' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+6' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+7' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+8' pen, 120+9' pen, 120+9' pen, 120+10' pen, 120+10' pen, 120+11' pen).

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo in Cercola.