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Napoli U19 vs Cesena U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Napoli U19
Napoli U19
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cesena U19
Cesena U19
8/26/2022Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 2Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Napoli U1958%
×Draw20%
Cesena U1922%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Napoli U19
2.25
Cesena U19
1.34

Napoli U19 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 17 away

creates per match

Napoli U19
1.26
Cesena U19
1.06

allows per match

Napoli U19
1.63
Cesena U19
3.24

finishing

Napoli U19+0.00on par
Cesena U19+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Napoli U19 ↓

Cesena U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Napoli U19 or draw
78%
Napoli U19 or Cesena U19
80%
Draw or Cesena U19
42%

Winning margin

Napoli U19 wins by 2+
36%
Cesena U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Napoli U19 1+ goals
89%
Napoli U19 2+ goals
65%
Napoli U19 3+ goals
39%
Cesena U19 1+ goals
74%
Cesena U19 2+ goals
39%
Cesena U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Napoli U19 (draw refunded)
72%
Cesena U19 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Napoli U19 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

Cesena U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 3.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Napoli U19 attack 1.26 + Cesena U19 defence 3.24 → ÷2 → 2.25

Cesena U19 attack 1.06 + Napoli U19 defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Napoli U19 scores more
58%
level
20%
Cesena U19 scores more
22%

Napoli U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Napoli U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Napoli U19 2–1 Cesena U19

Napoli U19 beat Cesena U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Piccolo in Cercola.