Nantong Zhiyun 1–2 Tianjin Teda: Result & Stats

Nantong Zhiyun

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Tianjin Teda

11/4/2023

Super League · Round 30Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun31%

×Draw27%

Tianjin Teda42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong ZhiyunExpected goals in this matchTianjin Teda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.37

Nantong Zhiyun

1.15

Tianjin Teda

1.37

Tianjin Teda creates 19% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

0.77

creates per match

1.11

1.63

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun

0.77

Tianjin Teda

1.11

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun

1.63

Tianjin Teda

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par

Tianjin Teda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Tianjin Teda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw

58%

Nantong Zhiyun or Tianjin Teda

73%

Draw or Tianjin Teda

69%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+

13%

Tianjin Teda wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals

68%

Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals

32%

Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals

11%

Tianjin Teda 1+ goals

75%

Tianjin Teda 2+ goals

40%

Tianjin Teda 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)

43%

Tianjin Teda (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Tianjin Teda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.77 + Tianjin Teda defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.15

Tianjin Teda attack 1.11 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more

31%

level

27%

Tianjin Teda scores more

42%

Tianjin Teda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Tianjin Teda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff