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Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — Super League 2018

Nantong Zhiyun
Nantong Zhiyun
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
5/19/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 8Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Nantong Zhiyun42%
×Draw25%
Shenzhen Ruby FC33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Zhiyun
1.51
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.33

Nantong Zhiyun creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 67 away

creates per match

Nantong Zhiyun
0.77
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.03

allows per match

Nantong Zhiyun
1.63
Shenzhen Ruby FC
2.25

finishing

Nantong Zhiyun+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Zhiyun ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Nantong Zhiyun or draw
67%
Nantong Zhiyun or Shenzhen Ruby FC
75%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
58%

Winning margin

Nantong Zhiyun wins by 2+
20%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Nantong Zhiyun 1+ goals
78%
Nantong Zhiyun 2+ goals
44%
Nantong Zhiyun 3+ goals
19%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
74%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
38%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Nantong Zhiyun (draw refunded)
55%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Zhiyun at home — creates 0.77, concedes 1.63 · 30 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Zhiyun attack 0.77 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.51

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 1.03 + Nantong Zhiyun defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nantong Zhiyun scores more
42%
level
25%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
33%

Nantong Zhiyun at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nantong Zhiyun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantong Zhiyun vs Shenzhen Ruby FC

Nantong Zhiyun and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 1-1 in Super League on May 19, 2023.

The match was played at Rugao Olympic Sports Center Stadium in Rugao.