Nantong Haimen Codion 1–0 Xi'an Ronghai

Nantong Haimen Codion

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Xi'an Ronghai

6/30/2024

League Two · Round 14Haimen Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion55%

×Draw25%

Xi'an Ronghai20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong Haimen CodionExpected goals in this matchXi'an Ronghai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.89

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.65

Xi'an Ronghai

0.89

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 85% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 37 away

1.73

creates per match

0.73

1.05

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.73

Xi'an Ronghai

0.73

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.05

Xi'an Ronghai

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Xi'an Ronghai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Xi'an Ronghai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw

80%

Nantong Haimen Codion or Xi'an Ronghai

75%

Draw or Xi'an Ronghai

45%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+

30%

Xi'an Ronghai wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals

81%

Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals

49%

Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals

23%

Xi'an Ronghai 1+ goals

59%

Xi'an Ronghai 2+ goals

22%

Xi'an Ronghai 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)

73%

Xi'an Ronghai (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Xi'an Ronghai away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.73 + Xi'an Ronghai defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Xi'an Ronghai attack 0.73 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more

55%

level

25%

Xi'an Ronghai scores more

20%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff