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Nantong Haimen Codion vs Shenzhen Ruby FC — FA Cup 2019

Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shenzhen Ruby FC
Shenzhen Ruby FC
6/25/2023FA CupFA Cup · 3rd RoundHaimen Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion44%
×Draw32%
Shenzhen Ruby FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.10
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0.74

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 49% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.00
Shenzhen Ruby FC
0.80

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
0.67
Shenzhen Ruby FC
1.20

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par
Shenzhen Ruby FC+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Shenzhen Ruby FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw
76%
Nantong Haimen Codion or Shenzhen Ruby FC
68%
Draw or Shenzhen Ruby FC
56%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
18%
Shenzhen Ruby FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
67%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
30%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
10%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 1+ goals
52%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 2+ goals
17%
Shenzhen Ruby FC 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
64%
Shenzhen Ruby FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Shenzhen Ruby FC away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.00 + Shenzhen Ruby FC defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Shenzhen Ruby FC attack 0.80 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
44%
level
32%
Shenzhen Ruby FC scores more
24%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Nantong Haimen Codion 1–1 Shenzhen Ruby FC

Nantong Haimen Codion and Shenzhen Ruby FC drew 1-1 in FA Cup on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Haimen Sports Center Stadium in Nantong.