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Nantong Haimen Codion vs Rizhao Yuqi — League Two 2026

Nantong Haimen Codion
Nantong Haimen Codion
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rizhao Yuqi
Rizhao Yuqi
3/23/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 1Haimen Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion50%
×Draw26%
Rizhao Yuqi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.53
Rizhao Yuqi
0.99

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 55% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 36 away

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.73
Rizhao Yuqi
0.92

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion
1.05
Rizhao Yuqi
1.33

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par
Rizhao Yuqi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Rizhao Yuqi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw
75%
Nantong Haimen Codion or Rizhao Yuqi
74%
Draw or Rizhao Yuqi
50%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+
25%
Rizhao Yuqi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals
78%
Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals
45%
Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals
20%
Rizhao Yuqi 1+ goals
63%
Rizhao Yuqi 2+ goals
26%
Rizhao Yuqi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)
67%
Rizhao Yuqi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Rizhao Yuqi away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.33 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.73 + Rizhao Yuqi defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

Rizhao Yuqi attack 0.92 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more
50%
level
26%
Rizhao Yuqi scores more
25%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Nantong Haimen Codion 2–1 Rizhao Yuqi

Nantong Haimen Codion beat Rizhao Yuqi 2-1 in League Two on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Haimen Sports Center Stadium in Nantong.