Nantong Haimen Codion 2–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Nantong Haimen Codion

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

9/16/2023

League Two · Relegation Round - 5Haimen Sports Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Nantong Haimen Codion57%

×Draw23%

Quanzhou Yassin19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantong Haimen CodionExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

0.91

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.76

Quanzhou Yassin

0.91

Nantong Haimen Codion creates 93% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 47 away

1.73

creates per match

0.77

1.05

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.73

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Nantong Haimen Codion

1.05

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantong Haimen Codion+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantong Haimen Codion ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nantong Haimen Codion or draw

81%

Nantong Haimen Codion or Quanzhou Yassin

77%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

43%

Winning margin

Nantong Haimen Codion wins by 2+

32%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Nantong Haimen Codion 1+ goals

83%

Nantong Haimen Codion 2+ goals

52%

Nantong Haimen Codion 3+ goals

26%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

60%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

23%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nantong Haimen Codion (draw refunded)

75%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantong Haimen Codion at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.05 · 55 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantong Haimen Codion attack 1.73 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.76

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Nantong Haimen Codion defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nantong Haimen Codion scores more

57%

level

23%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

19%

Nantong Haimen Codion at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nantong Haimen Codion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff