Nantes W 2–1 Guingamp W: Result & Stats

Nantes W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guingamp W

J. Mossard 90+1'

C. Cosme 5'

A. Péniguel 75'

1/8/2025

Feminine Division 1 · Round 12Stade Marcel-Saupin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nantes W55%

×Draw24%

Guingamp W21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nantes WExpected goals in this matchGuingamp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.95

Nantes W

1.71

Guingamp W

0.95

Nantes W creates 80% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 73 away

1.18

creates per match

0.77

1.14

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Nantes W

1.18

Guingamp W

0.77

allows per match

Nantes W

1.14

Guingamp W

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nantes W+0.00on par

Guingamp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes W ↓

Guingamp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nantes W or draw

79%

Nantes W or Guingamp W

76%

Draw or Guingamp W

45%

Winning margin

Nantes W wins by 2+

30%

Guingamp W wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nantes W 1+ goals

82%

Nantes W 2+ goals

51%

Nantes W 3+ goals

24%

Guingamp W 1+ goals

61%

Guingamp W 2+ goals

25%

Guingamp W 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nantes W (draw refunded)

73%

Guingamp W (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes W at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 22 matches

Guingamp W away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.25 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes W attack 1.18 + Guingamp W defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.71

Guingamp W attack 0.77 + Nantes W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nantes W scores more

55%

level

24%

Guingamp W scores more

21%

Nantes W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nantes W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Péniguel

Guingamp W · F

7.9

Match Events

5'

C. Cosme

18'

Sana Daoudi

23'

Caitlin Cosme

61'

M. Cosson← D. Marcano

61'

R. Éloissant← T. Eninger

69'

A. Ribeyra← M. Bigot

72'

J. Mossard← A. Ould Braham

75'

A. Péniguel↳ G. Kazadi

80'

L. Rageot← Nelly Rodrigues

80'

L. Storti← C. Robillard

88'

S. Bhandari← L. Peneau

90+5'

Sofia Guellati

90'

Alison Peniguel

90+1'

J. Mossard↳ L. Fleury

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NantesGuingamp

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots12

3Corners1

9Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target3

4Off Target5

0Blocked4

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box8

Passing

51%Possession49%

473Total Passes458

374Accurate Passes352

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards3

6Offsides0