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Nantes vs Laval — Coupe de France 2018

Nantes
Nantes
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Laval
Lavaladvanced
1/20/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · Round of 32Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nantes33%
×Draw24%
Laval43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes
1.42
Laval
1.67

Laval creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Nantes
1.91
Laval
1.88

allows per match

Nantes
1.45
Laval
0.94

finishing

Nantes+0.00on par
Laval+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes ↓

Laval →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Nantes or draw
57%
Nantes or Laval
76%
Draw or Laval
67%

Winning margin

Nantes wins by 2+
15%
Laval wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nantes 1+ goals
76%
Nantes 2+ goals
41%
Nantes 3+ goals
17%
Laval 1+ goals
81%
Laval 2+ goals
50%
Laval 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Nantes (draw refunded)
43%
Laval (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes at home — creates 1.91, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Laval away — creates 1.88, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes attack 1.91 + Laval defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.42

Laval attack 1.88 + Nantes defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nantes scores more
33%
level
24%
Laval scores more
43%

Laval at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Laval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantes vs Laval

Laval beat Nantes 1-0 in Coupe de France on January 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.