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Nantes vs Juventus — UEFA Europa League 2026

Nantes
Nantes
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Juventus
Juventus
2/23/2023UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Knockout Round Play-offsStade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Nantes10%
×Draw19%
Juventus71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes
0.67
Juventus
2.13

Juventus creates 218% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Nantes
1.00
Juventus
2.00

allows per match

Nantes
2.25
Juventus
0.33

finishing

Nantes+0.00on par
Juventus+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes ↓

Juventus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–113%
0–214%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Nantes or draw
29%
Nantes or Juventus
81%
Draw or Juventus
90%

Winning margin

Nantes wins by 2+
3%
Juventus wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Nantes 1+ goals
49%
Nantes 2+ goals
15%
Nantes 3+ goals
3%
Juventus 1+ goals
88%
Juventus 2+ goals
63%
Juventus 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Nantes (draw refunded)
13%
Juventus (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Juventus away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes attack 1.00 + Juventus defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Juventus attack 2.00 + Nantes defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nantes scores more
10%
level
19%
Juventus scores more
71%

Juventus at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Juventus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantes vs Juventus

Juventus beat Nantes 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on February 23, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.