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Nantes U19 vs Sevilla U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Nantes U19
Nantes U19
Pens
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Sevilla U19
Sevilla U19
2/7/2024UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Play-offsStade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Nantes U1958%
×Draw23%
Sevilla U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nantes U19
1.78
Sevilla U19
0.91

Nantes U19 creates 96% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nantes U19
2.20
Sevilla U19
0.82

allows per match

Nantes U19
1.00
Sevilla U19
1.36

finishing

Nantes U19+0.00on par
Sevilla U19+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nantes U19 ↓

Sevilla U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nantes U19 or draw
81%
Nantes U19 or Sevilla U19
77%
Draw or Sevilla U19
42%

Winning margin

Nantes U19 wins by 2+
33%
Sevilla U19 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Nantes U19 1+ goals
83%
Nantes U19 2+ goals
53%
Nantes U19 3+ goals
26%
Sevilla U19 1+ goals
60%
Sevilla U19 2+ goals
23%
Sevilla U19 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nantes U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Sevilla U19 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nantes U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Sevilla U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nantes U19 attack 2.20 + Sevilla U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.78

Sevilla U19 attack 0.82 + Nantes U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Nantes U19 scores more
58%
level
23%
Sevilla U19 scores more
19%

Nantes U19 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Nantes U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nantes U19 vs Sevilla U19

Nantes U19 and Sevilla U19 drew 3-3 in UEFA Youth League on February 7, 2024.

The match was played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau in Nantes.